Information Warfare in the Early Stages of the Russia-Ukraine War

The prelude and opening stages of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine were one of history's most intense periods of hostile cyber and influence activity. Alongside conventional warfare, both states engaged in a sophisticated battle for influence, deploying digital propaganda, psychological operations, and cyberattacks.

This study examines the conflict's information dimension from late 2021 to April 2022 via a novel analytical paradigm adapted from strategic marketing and audience segmentation. By focusing on who the target is, when they are susceptible, and how operations are executed, analysts can systematically map cyber, influence, and hybrid (Cyfluence) operations across time and audience, identifying strategic and operational intent, as well as potential cardinal indicators for conflict escalation.

Applying this analytical model to the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine Information War provides valuable insights and strategic context from a pivotal moment in the evolution of hybrid warfare. The analysis breaks down the key events and examines and expands on the key strategic and operational implications.

The lessons drawn from this analysis are relevant for countries in the Southeast Asian and Indo-Pacific region, as they grapple with the realization that they too may face a similar threat to Ukraine. China, for example, is closely following Russia’s playbook, is coordinating with Russian cyber-influence agencies, and has shown willingness to deploy its own advanced capabilities in the region.

And for European countries, while more familiar with Russian doctrines of hybrid warfare, the idea of a future hybrid conflict taking place in their backyard is more immediate. They too might benefit from a new analytical model on how to better predict, detect and defend against future hybrid conflicts.

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Information Warfare in the Early Stages of the Russia Ukraine War.pdf

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